
Republican’s On Parade
May 19, 2007Remember my post a couple days ago about the Republican Debate? Here’s a recent article posted on MSNBC published by the National Journal. Guess I wasn’t too far off. They’ve added a couple contenders though that weren’t in the recent debates.
Of particular note: look at the last comment for Ron Paul!
1. Rudy Giuliani
Former New York City mayor Last Ranking: 1
Thrown a softball by “rival” Ron Paul, Giuliani hit a grand slam. He reconnected with several million potential voters in a second. Campaigns are about events; good candidates turn events into “moments.” This was a Rudy moment. And yet, that’s all it was. He needs more of them if he wants to push abortion and cultural issues off the table. He also needs to demonstrate that he really takes Iowa and New Hampshire seriously. The local press isn’t convinced, and that hurts him every time he travels there. We believe Rudy wants to win New Hampshire and place or show in Iowa, but he’s having a tough time attracting precinct captains and field organizations precisely because they don’t believe yet.
2. John McCain
Arizona senator Last Ranking: 2
He had a very strong debate and a very good month. Re: the debate, he would have been judged the winner had Ron Paul not Ron Pauled. Re: his month, has he had a better 30 days in the conservative press? Fundraising’s going very well, we hear. His campaign adjusts nimbly to changes and isn’t afraid to fire staff who don’t perform. McCain seems more comfortable, generally. He hasn’t been shy about defending his “bipartisan” instincts, and remarkably, isn’t getting called out for it. He still has slim leads in most early state polls. He’s not out of the woods, but he sees a clearing.
3. Mitt Romney
Former Massachusetts governor Last Ranking: 3
Don’t let his underwhelming debate performance fool you — Romney’s also had a strong couple of weeks. The debate aside, “Flip-Flop Mitt” isn’t heard much anymore. Thirty thousand new supporters in 24 hours is impressive, and he still has a good number of top conservatives on his side. Money is going gangbusters. But there has to be a “but,” and this is it: Remember in the debate when Romney promised to double Gitmo’s size? His campaign crowed about how he distinguished himself from the rest of the field, but what it didn’t realize — we think — is how weird that idea sounds, even to conservative supporters. Sometimes, Romney reminds us of our younger brother who, just because we were New York Giants fans, announced he loved the San Francisco 49ers.
4. Fred Thompson
Former Tennessee senator Last Ranking: 4
We’re hearing that he’s two or three weeks away from a final decision, that a campaign manager might be on board, and that a strategy is coming together. What we didn’t hear, at least from our chats this week with about two-dozen RNC state chairs, was much enthusiasm. They’re not sure he’s up to the task; they’re not sure he’s as conservative as people think; they don’t know whether he can debate, etc.
5. Mike Huckabee
Former Arkansas governor Last Ranking: 5
He seemed almost presidential in the last debate: comforting, reassuring, strong in the right ways, quick with a witty aside, respectful of his peers. All that’s to his credit. But where’s his organization, money and staff? By the way: If he’s not sweet-talking James Dobson every day…
6. Newt Gingrich
Former House Speaker Last Ranking: –
If he gets in in September, who gets voted off the island? And will the entrance of Fred Thompson diminish any potential excitement for Newt?
7. Sam Brownback
Kansas senator Last Ranking: 6
He needs to take Huckabee out. If he doesn’t, he’s toast.
8. Tom Tancredo
Colorado Congressman Last Ranking: 110
He had a better debate, and he’s got the amnesty issue now. We’ll see if he gets an Iowa bump.
9. Duncan Hunter
California Congressman Last Ranking: 7
He sounded like a well-informed member of Congress on military issues. But he’s running for president.
10. Tommy Thompson
Former Wisconsin governor Last Ranking: 10
Two gaffe-filled debates in a row.
11. Jim Gilmore
Former Virginia Governor Last Ranking: 8
When you think of “Rudy McRomney,” do you think of Gilmore? We didn’t think so.
12. Ron Paul
Texas congressman Last Ranking: 9
Just please stop e-mailing us. Thanks.
These rankings are ordered by likelihood of winning the Republican primary and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling. Click here for Democratic rankings.
Copyright 2007 by National Journal Group Inc.
1. Rudy Giuliani
2. John McCain
3. Mitt Romney
4. Fred Thompson
5. Mike Huckabee
6. Newt Gingrich
7. Sam Brownback
8. Tom Tancredo
9. Duncan Hunter
11. Jim Gilmore
12. Ron Paul





